000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 18.9N 110.5W, or about 240 nm S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 01/2100 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. This is a quite large system system as seen on satellite imagery. The imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 16N to 21N between 106W-111W, and from 14N to 19N between 111W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N to 17N between 117W-120W. Seas of 8-12 ft were detected by altimeter data within 240 nm of the depression in the SE quadrant. An increase in forward speeds of the depression is expected during the next couple of days. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. The depression is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm totals of 3 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur through Fri. Please consult products from your local weather office. In addition, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 06N to inland eastern El Salvador and western Honduras. It is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave from 10N to 14N. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 05N to the western Gulf of Tehuantepec and inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward about 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 99W. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough extends from southern Nicaragua near 12N86W west-northwest to 15N96W to 17N105W to 1004 mb low pressure near 18N110W to 15N120W to 12N130W and to 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 115W-119W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 138W- 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is about 240 nm S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, mainly gentle NW winds are west of Baja California Norte while light to gentle winds are west of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the influence of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, seas are 4-6 ft across the offshore waters of Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than the conditions associated to Tropical Depression Eleven-E as described in the Special Features, pulsing fresh northerly winds are again expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight. Gradual development of the tropical wave along 96W is expected, and is likely to form into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over sections of Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, Costa Rica. Some of this activity extends to just offshore those coasts. Similar activity is over northwest Colombia. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through at least early Sat. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala from Fri afternoon into Sat as the tropical wave along 96W undergoes graduall development an area of low pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is about 240 nm S of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered just NW of the areas near 32N129W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 25N and west of 133W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Strong to near gale winds were noted in an ASCAT pass to be south of Tropical Depression Eleven-E and \ the monsoon trough to near 09N and between 106W-120W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-12 ft range. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas generally in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri as a cold front presently near the far NW corner of the area stalls and begins to weaken. The high will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Aguirre