000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011650 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low pressure is located about 260 nm S of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 18N110W, moving NW around 11 kt. This low is along a tropical wave which extends from 08N to 21N. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 15N to 19N between 108W-111W and from 17N to 20N between 111W-115W. Similar activity is noted from 14N to 17N between 111W-115W. The overall convective activity has become better organized during the overnight and early morning hours. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is forecast to form during the next day or so. The low contains maximum sustained winds near 30 kt and seas to 10-12 ft. The system is forecast to continue moving NW, likely passing through the waters west of Baja California Sur late Fri through Sat night as a tropical cyclone. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 06N to inland eastern El Salvador and western Honduras. It is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave from 10N to 14N. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 05N to the western Gulf of Tehuantepec and inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward about 5-10 kt. This wave is associated with an areas of disturbed weather that has formed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 98W. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough extends from southern Nicaragua near 12N86W west-northwest to 15N96W to 17N105W to 1004 mb low pressure near 18N110W to 15N120W to 12N130W and to 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 115W-119W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 138W- 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure near 18N110W, or about 270 nm S of the southern tip of southern Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere over the open waters, moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte while gentle winds are found off Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are occurring over the Gulf of California. Fresh N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the influence of the 1004 mb low pressure area, seas are 4-6 ft across the offshore waters of Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near Cabo Corrientes from 17N to 20N between 104W-107W. For the forecast, other than the conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, pulsing fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this morning, then develop again tonight. An area of disturbed weather has formed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. Thunderstorms are active near the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through Fri. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala late Fri into Sat, in association with an area of low pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure near 17N109W, about 260 nm south of the the southern tip of southern Baja California peninsula. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered just NW of the areas near 32N129W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 25N and west of 133W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough to 08N between 106W-120W as were captured by an overnight ASCAT pass, Seas with these winds are in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-8 ft. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Aguirre