607 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010957
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure is located about 310 nm WSW
of Manzanillo, Mexico near 17N109W, moving WNW around 12 kt. 
This low is along a tropical wave which extends from 08N to 21N.
Showers and thunderstorms near the low have changed little in
organization during the last 6 hours. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 104W and 
118W. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is forecast to form during the next day or so.
The low contains maximum sustained winds near 30 kt and seas to 
10-12 ft. The system is forecast to continue moving NW, likely 
passing through the waters west of Baja California Sur late Fri 
through Sat night as a tropical cyclone. The system has a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. 
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest 
High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 87W, north of 06N to W 
Nicaragua, moving W at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is 
described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 95W, north of 05N to the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, moving W at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is 
described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off Nicaragua near 12N87W to 16N100W 
to 1005 mb low pressure near 17N109W to 12N125W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N
between 93W and 97W and from 13N to 15N between 120W and 123W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 
78W and 89W, and from 07N to 13N between 131W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure
near 17N109W, about 310 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Elsewhere over the open waters, moderate NW winds prevail west 
of Baja California Norte while gentle winds are found off Baja 
California Sur. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are occurring 
over the Gulf of California. Fresh N winds are occurring in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of 
the influence of the 1006 mb low pressure area, seas are 4-6 ft 
across the offshore waters of Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of
California. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
near Cabo Corrientes from 19N to 22N between 104W and 107W.

For the forecast, other than the conditions associated with the 
low pressure area described in the Special Features, pulsing 
fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through early this morning, and again tonight. Another area of 
low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of 
Mexico by late Fri or Sat. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while the low moves westward or west-
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within 
the next 5 days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are
5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 
4-6 ft seas. Thunderstorms are active near the coasts of Panama,
Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala.

For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through Fri.
Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore 
Guatemala late Fri into Sat, in association with an area of low 
pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of 
Mexico.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure
near 17N109W, about 310 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered over the NW waters near 
29N136W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the 
high north of 25N and west of 133W. Moderate to locally fresh NE 
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and west of 120W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are south 
of the monsoon trough to 08N between 105W and 120W, with seas of
7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south 
of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-8 ft.

For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low 
pressure area described in the Special Features, high 
pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to 
block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift 
W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the 
NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to locally strong N 
to NE winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little 
change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Hagen