000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure is located about 260 nm WSW
of Manzanillo, Mexico near 17N108W, moving northwest around 10 
kt. This low is along a tropical wave which extends from 06N to 
21N. Showers and thunderstorms near the low have become better 
organized during the last 24 hours. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 19N between 106W 
and 119W. Although the low's circulation remains somewhat broad 
and elongated, further development is expected, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm is forecast to form during the next 
day or so. The low contains maximum sustained winds near 30 kt
and seas to 10 ft. The system is forecast to continue moving NW,
likely passing through the waters west of Baja California Sur
late Fri through Sat night as a tropical cyclone. The system has
a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the 
latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 86W, north of 06N to
Nicaragua, moving W at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is 
described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 94W, north of 05N to the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, moving W at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is 
described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off Nicaragua near 12N86W to 16N100W
to 1006 mb low pressure near 17N108W to 15N120W to 12N127W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 04N to 10N between 77W and 86W, from 11N to 16N 
between 88W and 98W, and from 07N to 11N between 125W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure
near 17N108W, about 260 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Elsewhere over the open waters, moderate to fresh NW winds
prevail west of Baja California Norte while gentle winds are
found off Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate S winds are
occurring over the Gulf of California. Gentle W winds prevail off
Chiapas, Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero. Outside of the influence 
of the 1006 mb low pressure area, seas are 4-6 ft across the 
offshore waters of Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near
Cabo Corrientes from 19N to 22N between 104W and 107W.

For the forecast, other than the conditions associated with the 
low pressure area described in the Special Features, moderate to
fresh NW winds will continue offshore Baja California Norte
through tonight. Pulsing fresh northerly winds are forecast in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again Thu night. Another area
of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast 
of Mexico by Fri or Sat. Gradual development of this system is 
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while the low moves westward or west-
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development 
within the next 5 days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia, where seas are
5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere with 
4-6 ft seas. Thunderstorms are active near the coasts of Panama,
Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala.

For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through Fri.
Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore 
Guatemala late Fri into Sat, in association with an area of low 
pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of 
Mexico.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure
near 17N108W, about 260 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered over the NW waters near 
28N137W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the 
high north of 25N and west of 133W. Moderate to locally fresh NE 
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and west of 120W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are south
of the monsoon trough to 10N between 105W and 116W, with seas of
7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south 
of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-8 ft.

For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low 
pressure area described in the Special Features, high 
pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to 
block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift 
W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the 
NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and building seas through Mon. Elsewhere, little change is
anticipated through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Hagen