000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1007 mb area of low pressure is located a few hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico near 16N107W, moving northwest around 10 kt. This low is along a tropical wave which extends from 05N to 19N. The low is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 10N to 17N between 105W and 118W. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system is developing a low-level circulation, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. The satellite-derived wind data did show some winds around 35 kt although these are likely rain contaminated and current conditions are estimated to be 20-30 kt with seas of 8-11 ft. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward during the next few days, likely remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 85W, north of 06N to NW Costa Rica and central Nicaragua, drifting very slowly at 5 kt or less. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 93W/94W, north of 05N to just east of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, drifting slowly around 5 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off Costa Rica near the Papagayo region from 11N86W to 1007 mb low pressure near 16N107W to 13N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 86W, from 10N to 15N between 90W and 99W, from 13N to 17N between 120W and 125W, and from 07N to 11N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure near 16N107W, a few hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, winds are moderate or weaker, locally fresh in the central Gulf of California, with seas of 4-6 ft in S to SW swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California. Seas are 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California, locally around 3 ft in the central Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with a tropical wave as described above. Similar convection is noted in the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja California tonight. Pulsing fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again Thu night. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell, except 5-7 ft offshore of Ecuador. Thunderstorms are active near the coast of Colombia, as well as offshore Costa Rica. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through Fri. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala late Fri into Sat, in association with an area of low pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure near 16N107W, a few hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. High pressure of 1021 mb is centered over the NW waters near 28N134W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 24N and west of 130W. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 118W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough to 10N between 98W and 118W, with seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft to 05N between 118W and 128W. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky