888 AXPZ20 KNHC 311438 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 106W from 05N to 18N, or a few hundred nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving WNW at around 10 kt. Low pressure of 1007 mb is along the tropical wave axis near 15N106W. Current associated winds are 20-25 kt with seas of 8-9 ft. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 13N to 17N between 105W and 109W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 104W and 116W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 5 days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands through the end of the week, and near Baja California Sur Fri into the weekend. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 85W, north of 06N to Costa Rica, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 93W, north of 05N just to the east of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off Costa Rica near the Papagayo region from 11N86W to 15N102W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N106W to 11N126W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 86W, from 10N to 15N between 92W and 96W, from 07N to 12N between 120W and 132W, and from 12N to 14N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure near 15N106W, a few hundred nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-6 ft in S to SW swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California. Seas are 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with a tropical wave as described above. Similar convection is noted in the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja California tonight into early Fri. Pulsing fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again Thu night. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell, except 5-7 ft offshore of Ecuador. Thunderstorms are active near the coast of Colombia, as well as offshore Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through Fri. Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala Sat, in association with an area of low pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure near 15N106W, a few hundred nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. High pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the NW waters near 28N133W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are under the high north of 24N and west of 129W. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 117W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough to 09N between 105W and 120W, with seas of 7-9 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft near 03.4S120W. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the low pressure area described in the Special Features, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky