000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 06N to 18N, or a 
few hundred nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving W
around 10 kt. This tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms described below in the 
Monsoon Trough section. A recent ASCAT pass shows a band of 
20-25 kt SW winds from 10N-15N between 102W-115W, while recent
altimeter data show seas of 8-9 ft in the area. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected 
to form later this week or by this weekend. The system is 
forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely 
remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance 
within the next 5 days. Regardless of development, expect 
increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from near 
Cabo Corrientes, Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu, and
near Baja California Sur by Fri. Please read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
www.hurricanes.gov for additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 83/84W, north of 07N to 
Costa Rica, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms
are within 120 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave has its axis along 92W, north of 05N to the
western Guatemala border with Mexico, moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between
92W and 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N79W to the coast
of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 14.5N94W to 16N106W to 11N125W to
13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 80W, and from 08N to 16N
between 100W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ASCAT data show moderate to fresh winds offshore Guerrero
and Michoacan, locally strong well offshore, in association with
the tropical wave along 105W. ASCAT also shows moderate to fresh
NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds
are likely occurring off Baja California Sur. Gentle winds are 
elsewhere. Seas are likely 6-8 ft between 100W-105W in
association with the aforementioned fresh winds. Seas are 3-6 ft
elsewhere, except for 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California, north of
the entrance. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
over the Gulf of California from 25N-28N. This area of convection
is shrinking in areal extent as it moves southward.

For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the 
tropical wave and possible developing low pressure, winds may 
pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja California through tonight.
Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec tonight. Another area of low pressure is forecast to 
form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. 
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, 
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast 
of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
development within the next 5 days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show gentle W winds across most
of the Central American offshore waters from Guatemala to Costa
Rica. Moderate S to SW winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia. Seas 
are 4-6 ft in S swell, except 5-7 ft offshore of Ecuador. 
Thunderstorms are active near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, similar conditions will continue through Fri.
Winds may increase to moderate to locally fresh offshore 
Guatemala this weekend, in association with an area of low
pressure that is forecast to form south of the southern coast of
Mexico.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding a tropical wave
and associated winds and seas near 105W.

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the NW waters near 
29N133W. This high dominates the weather pattern north of the 
monsoon trough. Recent ASCAT data show light to gentle variable 
winds under the high north of 25N and west of 130W, along with 
seas of 4-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of about 122W, 
along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds are south of
the monsoon trough, east of 115W, where recent altimeter data
shows seas of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the
tropical wave and possible developing low pressure, high 
pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to 
block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift 
W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the 
NW and N-central waters resulting in fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and building seas. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated
through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Hagen