000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 104W/105W, from 06N to 18N, or a few hundred nautical miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving W around 10 kt. This tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms described below in the Monsoon Trough section. Currently, associated winds are 20 kt or less, locally higher in any convection. Seas to around 8 ft are occurring well to the west of the wave in association with 15-20 kt SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 5 days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands by late this week. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 82W, north of 07N to across Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis north of 07N, including over western Panama. A tropical wave has its axis along 91W, north of 06N to across Guatemala, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis north of 11.5N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over SE Mexico near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08.5N78.5W to inland over Panama and Costa Rica, then emerging into the Pacific again near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N86W to 14N92W to 15N112W to 11N125W to 14N133W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 79W, from 09N to 15N between 101W and 119W, and from 08N to 12N between 120W and 130W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted along and within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate off Baja California Sur. Gentle winds are elsewhere, except for moderate to locally fresh between 100W-104W, east of the tropical wave along 104W. Seas are likely 5-7 ft near and east of the tropical wave between 100W-104W. Seas are 3-6 ft elsewhere, except for 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Numerous strong convection is noted just inland over Sonora and Sinaloa. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the tropical wave and possibly developing low pressure, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja California through Wed night. Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as offshore southern Colombia. Light to gentle W winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell. Thunderstorms are active along the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail near the monsoon trough through the week, increasing to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala this weekend, in association with the second potential area of low pressure, mentioned in the section above. Moderate winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador, pulsing at times to fresh Wed and continuing into the weekend. Seas may build slightly during the pulsing fresh winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section regarding a tropical wave and associated winds and seas near 104W/105W. High pressure of 1021 mb is centered over the NW waters near 29N133W. This high dominates the weather pattern north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle variable winds are found under the high north of 25N and west of 128W, along with seas of 4-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of about 122W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, highest between roughly 105W and 123W, where seas are up to around 8 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the tropical wave and possible developing low pressure, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through Fri, helping to block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high will shift W-NW this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens over the NW and N-central waters resulting in freshening NE winds and building seas, mainly NW of a line of 30N121W to 20N140W. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Hagen