000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 103W/104W, from 06N to 17N, or a few hundred nautical miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving slowly west around 5 kt. This tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as is described below. Currently, associated winds are 20 kt or less, locally higher in any convection, with seas to around 8 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and high chance in the next 5 days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands by late week. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional marine information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 81W, north of 07N to across Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west 20 kt. Associated convection is mainly confined to the western Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave has its axis along 90W, north of 06N to across the border of Guatemala and El Salvador, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with at most isolated showers and thunderstorms. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Central America near Costa Rica from 09.5N84W to 14.5N105W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N118W to 13.5N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection covers a large and broad area from roughly 08N to 14N between 95W and 130W, and from 13N to 15N between 130W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section regarding a tropical wave and associated winds and seas near 103W/104W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, highest offshore Baja California Norte. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell, except mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California, and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 26N near Cabo Corrientes to across the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the tropical wave and possibly developing low pressure, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja California through Wed night. Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, as well as just offshore southern Colombia. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Colombia northward. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the week, increasing to moderate to locally fresh offshore Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, pulsing at times to fresh offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador Wed and continuing into the weekend. Seas may build slightly during the pulsing fresh winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section regarding a tropical wave and associated winds and seas near 103W/104W. High pressure 1021 mb is centered over the NW waters near 29N133W. This high dominates the weather pattern north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle variable winds are found under the high north of 25N and west of 127W, along with seas of 4-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are found elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of about 120W, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, highest between roughly 105W and 125W, where seas are up to around 8 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas are across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, other than conditions associated with the tropical wave and possibly developing low pressure, high pressure will remain over the NW waters through the end of the week, helping to block a weak cold front approaching 30N140W. The high may shift W-NW with the pressure gradient strengthening over the NW and N-central waters this weekend resulting in freshening winds and building seas. Elsewhere, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky