000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301454 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W/89W, north of 06N to across El Salvador and then the Yucatan Peninsula, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 103W, from 05N to 17N, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave that was previously near 139W/140W has moved west of 140W into the Central Pacific basin. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Central America near the Papagayo region from 11N86W to 13N100W to 15N109W to 13N120W to 14N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 23N between 92W and 111W, from 08N to 14N between 116W and 128W, from 13N to 16N between 129W and 133W, and from 09N to 11N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California Norte. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell in the open waters, except mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California, and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the offshore waters from near Cabo Corrientes southward. For the forecast, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja California through Wed night. Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu. A tropical wave located a few hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance of developing in 5 days. This system will lead to an increase of winds and seas starting Wed night through the end of the week in the southwestern Mexico offshore waters. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward or west- northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region, along with seas of 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Colombia northward. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the week, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Winds may pulse to fresh off the Colombia and Ecuador coasts starting Wed and continuing into the weekend. Seas are also expected to slightly build during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well north of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, locally fresh from 15N to 20N. Seas range 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are south of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh between 100W and 120W where seas are up to 8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas are elsewhere. Southerly swell with seas to 8 ft are reaching the waters along and just north of 03.4S west of 105W. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region north of the monsoon trough through midweek. The set of SW swell reaching near 03.4S and west of 105W is expected to subside tonight. A tropical wave located a few hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week. The system is forecast to move west- northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance of developing in 5 days. $$ Lewitsky