000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 87W, north of 07N to Honduras  
and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The 
majority of associated deep convection is found inland. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 102W, from 06N to 17N, moving
west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 139W, from 06N to 20N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Central America near
the Papagayo region near 11N86W to 14N103W to 13N120W to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N
between 80W and 96W, from 06N to 15N between 98W and 127W, and
from 09N to 15N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, 
including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft in the open 
waters, and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California north of the 
entrance. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern 
Mexico offshore waters. 

For the forecast, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja
California through Wed night, with moderate or weaker winds 
expected elsewhere. Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu. A tropical wave located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing 
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could 
form later this week. The system is forecast to move west- 
northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred 
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low
chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a medium chance of
developing in 5 days. This system will lead to an increase of 
winds and seas starting Wed night through the end of the week in
the southern Mexico offshore waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds prevail across the region, along with seas
of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Panama northward in
addition to moving off the Colombia coast.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough through the week, with gentle to
moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Winds may pulse to
fresh off the Colombia and Ecuador coasts starting Wed and
continuing into the weekend. Seas are also expected to slightly
build during this time. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds prevail. The latest ASCAT shows an area of fresh 
winds from 14N to 20N between 129W and 137W. Seas range 4-6 ft. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are south of 
the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh between 98W and 
117W where seas to 8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft
seas are elsewhere. Southerly swell with seas to 8 ft are
reaching waters S of 01S and W of 108W. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through midweek. The 
set of SW swell reaching near 03.4S and west of 100W is expected
to subside by Tue night. A tropical wave located a few hundred 
miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the 
next several days, and a tropical depression could form later 
this week. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or 
northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred miles off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of 
formation over the next 48 hours and a medium chance in 5 days. 

$$
AReinhart