000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300357
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 85W/86W, north of 07N to 
across Nicaragua and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. The majority of associated deep convection is found 
inland. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 101W, from 06N to 17N, moving
west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 137W, from 06N to 20N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Central America near
the Papagayo region from 11N86W to 13N101W to 13N120W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 16N between 97W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 81W and 89W and from 09N to 17N
between 132W and 139W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are mostly moderate or weaker across the offshore waters,
including in the Gulf of California. Locally fresh winds are
likely occurring along Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. Seas
are 4-6 ft in the open waters, and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of 
California north of the entrance. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters. 

For the forecast, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja
California through Wed night, with winds moderate or weaker
elsewhere. An increase of winds and seas is possible in the 
offshore waters of southwest Mexico on Wed night through the end 
of the week. Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds prevail across the region, along with seas
of 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Some isolated to widely scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Panama northward.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough through the week, with gentle to
moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Winds may pulse to
fresh off the Colombia and Ecuador coasts Wed and Thu along with
slightly building seas, then again this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds prevail, locally fresh from 15N to 20N, with seas of 
4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are
south of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh between
96W and 115W where seas are 8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds 
and 4-5 ft seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through midweek. A 
new set of SW swell will reach 03.4S and west of 100W this
evening, with seas building to around 8 ft. This swell is 
expected to subside by Tue night. An area of disturbed weather 
has formed a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several 
days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of
formation over the next 48 hours and 5 days. 

$$
AReinhart