000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292010
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 83W/84W, north of 07N to 
across Costa Rica and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at 
5 to 10 kt. The majority of associated deep convection is found 
in the western Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave has its axis along 112W/113W, from 04N to 18N, 
moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 136W/137W, from 04N to 20N,
moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described 
below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Central America near
the Papagayo region from 11N86W to 15N112W to 13N119W to 16N129W
to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 16N between 93W and 123W, and from 14N to 18N
between 123W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters,
including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft in the open
waters, and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California north of the
entrance. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the 
southern Mexico offshore waters. 

For the forecast, winds may pulse to fresh at night offshore Baja
California through Wed night, with winds moderate or weaker
elsewhere. An increase of winds and seas is possible in the 
offshore waters of southwest Mexico on Wed night through the end 
of the week. Pulsing fresh northerly winds may develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds prevail this afternoon, along with seas of
4-6 ft in southerly swell. Some isolated to widely scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore Panama northward.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough through the week, with gentle to
moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Winds may pulse to
fresh off the Colombia and Ecuador coasts Wed and Thu along with
slightly building seas, then again this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds prevail, locally fresh from 15N to 20N, with seas of 
4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are
south of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh between
100W and 120W where seas are locally 8 ft. Mainly light to 
gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through midweek. A 
new set of SW swell will reach 03.4S and west of 100W this
evening, with seas building to around 8 ft. This swell is 
expected to subside by Tue night. An area of low pressure is
forecast to form a few hundred miles south of southwestern 
Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible
toward the end of the week while it moves west-northwestward, 
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Increasing winds and seas
may occur if the low develops.

$$
Lewitsky