000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291453
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 83W, north of 05N to across
the border of Costa Rica and Panama and into the western
Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 10 kt. No deep convection is
noted with this tropical wave.

A tropical wave has its axis along 111W, from 04N to 18N, moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 135W from 04N to 20N, moving 
west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave that was along 140W has moved west into the
Central Pacific basin.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Central America near
the Papagayo region at 11N86W to 15N111W to 13N119W to 15N130W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 18N between 93W and 104W, from 06N to 11N
between 105W and 112W, from 08N to 16N between 115W and 121W, and
from 14N to 17N between 121W and 137W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 88W and 93W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are noted off the Baja California Norte coast
with 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California,
gentle to locally moderate winds are noted with 1-2 ft seas.
Toward the entrance of the Gulf, 3-4 ft seas are noted. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere with 4-5 ft seas in S swell.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Mexico
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds are expected to pulse
to fresh off Baja California at night through Wed night. Light 
to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere through midweek.
An increase of winds and seas is possible in the offshore waters
of southwest Mexico on Wed night through the end of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough,
with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Some scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted offshore Costa Rica northward.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough through the week, with gentle to
moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Winds may pulse to
fresh off the Colombia and Ecuador coasts Wed and Thu. Seas may
build slightly offshore Ecuador Wed and Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds prevail, locally fresh from 16N to 20N, with seas of 
4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5-6 ft are
south of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft east of 120W. Mainly light to
gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through midweek. A 
new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S and west of 100W tonight, 
with seas reaching 8 ft. This swell is expected to subside by Tue
night. Elsewhere, a pair of surface troughs will develop in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough by mid-week enhancing winds/seas 
from 10N-20N between 105W and 120W.

$$
Lewitsky