000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290921
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 109W, from 03N to 16N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 133W from 04N to 20N, moving 
west at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 140W, from 03N to 21N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 15N103W to 15N127W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 17N
between 97W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 18N between 128W and 140W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are noted off the Baja California Norte coast
with 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California,
gentle to locally moderate winds are noted with 1-2 ft seas.
Toward the entrance of the Gulf, 3-4 ft seas are noted. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere with 4-5 ft seas in S swell.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Mexico
offshore waters from 11N to 18N between 93W and 103W. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also moving off the Jalisco coast and
into those offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds are expected to pulse
to fresh off Baja California at night through Wed night. Light 
to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere through midweek.
An increase of winds and seas is possible in the offshore waters
of southwest Mexico on Wed night through the end of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, 
with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas 4-6 ft in
S to SW swell. Otherwise, strong thunderstorms are noted off the
Nicaragua and El Salvador coast with isolated thunderstorms 
noted in the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail N
of the monsoon trough through the week. Winds S of the monsoon 
trough gentle to moderate winds through Tue night. Winds off the
Colombia and Ecuador coast are expected to increase to locally
fresh on Wed and Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds prevail with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough in SW 
swell. An area of fresh winds are noted between the Galapagos 
Islands and 115W with 6-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through midweek. A 
new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S and west of 100W tonight, 
with seas reaching 8 ft. This swell is expected to subside by Tue
night. Elsewhere, a pair of surface troughs will develop in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough by mid-week enhancing winds/seas 
from 10N-20N between 105W and 120W.

$$
AReinhart