000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 103W, from 03N to 16N, moving
west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 06N to 16N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave is along 134W, from 03N to 22N, moving west at 
around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 14N104W to 15N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 
83W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 
18N between 98W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of
California with seas to 3 ft. Overnight ASCAT data also depicts
moderate winds off the Baja California Sur coast. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds prevail across the area with seas 5-6 ft.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters 
from Sinaloa southward to Oaxaca. 

For the forecast, winds will become gentle to moderate across
Baja California and the Gulf of California later today. Winds 
are expected to continue pulsing to locally fresh off Baja 
California at night through Thu. Light to gentle variable winds 
will continue to prevail elsewhere through midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, 
with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
mostly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas 5-7
ft in S to SW swell. Locally fresh southerly winds are likely 
occurring in the Ecuador and Colombia offshore waters S of 06N. 
Otherwise, strong thunderstorms are noted across the Central
American offshore waters in addition to the Colombia coast. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail N
of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds S of
the monsoon trough will diminish back to gentle to moderate 
speeds later today. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, moderate NE to E winds 
prevail with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and
seas to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough in SW swell, except
between the Galapagos Islands and 106W where fresh southerly 
winds are present.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend
and into early next week. A new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S 
and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will
prevail into early next week.

$$
AReinhart