000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 101W, from 05N to 16N, moving
west at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 16N between 95W and 104W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 123W from 06N to 17N, moving 
west at 5-10 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave
a this time.

A tropical wave is along 132W, from 07N to 20N, moving west at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 19N 
between 127W and 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 12N95W to 16N120W to 10N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered  
moderate isolated strong convection is N of 02N E of 94W, and
from 10N to 20N between 104W and 116W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is maintaining mostly 
light to gentle variable winds with seas within 4-6 ft in SW 
swell, except along the Baja California coastline where moderate
NW winds prevail. Moderate SE winds are also in the Gulf of 
California, with seas to 3 ft. Otherwise, numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is across the central Gulf of 
California from La Paz in Baja California Sur to Ciudad Obregon 
in Mexico.

For the forecast, a slight tightening in the pressure gradient
over the region of Baja California Norte will lead to moderate 
to locally fresh winds across the offshore waters N of Cabo San
Lazaro through Tue night. Mainly gentle variable winds will 
prevail elsewhere, except for the Gulf of California where 
moderate to locally fresh SE winds are forecast to continue 
through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, 
with seas 5-6 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
mostly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas 
5-7 ft in S to SW swell. However, locally southerly winds are
likely for the Ecuador and Colombia offshore waters S of 05N. 
Otherwise, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
across the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore 
waters ahead of the next tropical wave entering the E Pacific 
waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail N
of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds S of
the monsoon trough will diminish back to gentle to moderate 
speeds by Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, moderate NE to E winds 
prevail with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and
seas to 7 ft are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough in SW 
swell, except between the Galapagos Islands and 106W where fresh
southerly winds are present.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend
and into early next week. A new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S 
and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will
prevail into early next week.

$$
Ramos