000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 100W, from 05N to 16N, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are N of 06N between 94W and 104W. A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 06N to 20N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 19N between 120W and 126W. A tropical wave is along 132W, from 07N to 19N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 126W and 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N100W to 15N119W to 11N132W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 13N E of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 19N between 104W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region is maintaining mostly light to gentle variable winds with seas within 4-6 ft in SW swell. Along the Baja California coastline, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted. In the Gulf of California, light winds are noted with seas 1-3 ft, with 4-5 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf. An area of strong thunderstorms are moving off the coast of Sinaloa into the south-central Gulf of California from 25N to 28N and E of 111W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted moving off the coast of Nayarit and Jalisco offshore waters from 15N to 21N between 105W and 112W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient offshore Baja California will lead to moderate to fresh winds pulse at night through Tue night. Mainly gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere, except for the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh SE winds are forecast today through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, with seas 5-6 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, mostly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas 5-7 ft in S to SW swell. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the Colombia and Ecuador offshore waters and north of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, scattered showers continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama in addition to off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds S of the monsoon trough will diminish back to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well north of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, moderate NE winds prevail with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas to 7 ft are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough in SW swell. Otherwise, overnight altimeter data show seas to 8 ft from 12N to 14N between 120W and 123W associated with an area of convection. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. A new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will prevail into early next week. $$ Ramos