000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270329
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 98W, N of 05N into southern
Mexico, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted within 70 nm of the wave N of 13N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 121W from 04N to 17N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave is along 129W, from 04N to 21N, moving west at 
around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 13N104W to 15N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 81W and 90W and from
07N to 17N between 102W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is maintaining mostly 
light to gentle variable winds with seas within 4-6 ft in SW 
swell. Along the Baja California coastline, moderate to fresh NW
winds are noted. In the Gulf of California, light winds are noted
with seas 1-3 ft, with the highest seas at the entrance of the
Gulf. Numerous strong thunderstorms are moving off the coast of
Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of California from 22N to 28N
between 111W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is also 
noted moving off the coast of Nayarit and Jalisco offshore waters
from 16N to 22N between 104W and 109W. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient offshore Baja California 
will lead to moderate to fresh winds pulse at night through Tue
night. Mainly gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere, 
except for the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh
SE winds are forecast Sat into Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, 
with seas 5-6 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas 5-7 ft in
S to SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers continue across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail N
of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds S of
the monsoon trough will reach moderate to locally fresh speeds
tonight and diminish back to gentle to moderate speeds by early 
Monday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 120W, moderate NE winds 
prevail with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
and seas to 7 ft are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough in SW 
swell. Otherwise, earlier altimeter data show seas to 8 ft from 
06N to 13N between 120W and 129W associated with an area of 
convection.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend
and into early next week. A new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S 
and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will
prevail into early next week.

$$
AReinhart