000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 96W, N of 06N into the western 
Bay of Campeche, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is in the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore 
waters.

A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 06N to 19N, moving 
west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 19N
between 116W and 123W.

A tropical wave is along 127W, from 06N to 20N, moving west at 
around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 18N 
between 123W and 131W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
08N79W to 11N90W to 14N120W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 12N between 81W and 90W, and from 08N to 18N 
between 100W and 114W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is maintaining mainly 
light to gentle variable winds with seas within 3-5 ft in SW 
swell, except along the Baja California coastal waters where NW 
moderate winds prevail. In the Gulf of California, seas range
between 1-3 ft, being the highest seas at the entrance of the
gulf. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms continue across the 
offshore waters from Guerrero to Oaxaca, and in the entrance of 
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly 
offshore Baja California tonight. This will lead to moderate NW
winds expanding along and across the Baja peninsula offshore waters
with locally fresh winds mainly N of Punta Eugenia through the
middle of next week. Mainly gentle variable winds will prevail 
elsewhere, except for the Gulf of California where moderate to 
locally fresh SE winds are forecast Sat into Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, 
with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas to 5 ft 
in S to SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms continue 
across the offshore waters of Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds will prevail N
of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds S of
the monsoon trough will reach moderate to locally fresh speeds
tonight and diminish back to gentle to moderate speeds early on
Monday.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and roughly west of 123W, moderate NE winds 
prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft per recent altimeter data. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds and seas to 7 ft are elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough in SW swell. Otherwise, altimeter data show 
seas to 9 ft from 06N to 13N between 120W and 129W associated 
with an area of convection. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend
and into early next week. A new set of SW swell may reach 03.4S 
and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will
prevail into early next week.

$$
Ramos