000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252022
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 92W, just northwest of the 
Galapagos Islands, north of 02N to near the border of Guatemala
and Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is 
displaced to the west of the tropical wave axis and is described 
below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 116W from 02N to 17N 
southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, moving west at around 10 
kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave is along 123W, from 05N to 21N, moving west at 
around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N117W to 12N127W to
beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 07N
to 14N between 92W and 128W, and from 12N to 16N between 135W and
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging extending across the offshore waters from
the northwest is supporting mainly light to gentle winds this
afternoon. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in mainly long-period SW swell, 
mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California. In the Gulf of 
California, seas are 3 ft or less north of the entrance.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly 
offshore Baja California tonight leading to winds increasing to 
moderate to fresh just offshore through early next week. Mainly 
gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere, except for the Gulf
of California where moderate to locally fresh SE winds will 
occur Sat into Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas of
5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell, except 3 to 6 ft offshore Colombia.
Robust convection that has formed overnight in the Gulf of Panama
and offshore Colombia and may be leading to locally higher winds
and seas.

For the forecast, mainly gentle onshore winds will prevail north
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate southerly winds
south of the monsoon trough, pulsing locally to fresh offshore
southern Colombia and Ecuador early Sat through Sat evening. 
Southerly swell with moderate seas will propagate across the 
Ecuador, The Galapagos, and Colombia offshore waters through the 
weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered well north of the area continues to 
dominate the weather pattern for waters north of the monsoon
trough and west of 125W, with mainly moderate NE winds and seas 
of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are south of the monsoon 
trough in SW swell, highest near and just north of the Equator.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend
and into early next week. Seas around 8 ft from the Equator to
10N will subside by late tonight. A new set of SW swell may
breach 03.4S and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 
7 ft seas will prevail into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky