000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251435 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1410 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 91W, just north of the Galapagos Islands, north of 01N to across Guatemala, and is drifting west at around 5 kt. Nearby convection is displaced to the west of the tropical wave axis and is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 114W/115W, southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, from 01N to 16N, and is drifting west at around 5 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 121W/122W, from 01N to 21N, drifting west at around 5 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 15N117W to 11N128W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 81W, from 10N to 17N between 94W and 101W, from 06N to 14N between 104W and 111W, from 11N to 17N between 113W and 126W, and from 12N to 16N between 137W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 126W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extending across the offshore waters from the northwest is supporting mainly light to gentle winds, although some locally moderate NW winds are occurring offshore the southernmost parts of Baja California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in mainly long-period SW swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less north of the entrance. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail across the region and support mainly light to gentle NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight, before high pressure building SW toward the area leads to winds increasing to moderate to fresh Fri through early next week. Mainly gentle variable winds elsewhere, except for the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh SE winds will occur Sat into Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are north of the monsoon trough, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevails, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell, except 3 to 6 ft offshore Colombia. Robust convection that has formed overnight in the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia and may be leading to locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, mainly gentle onshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough, pulsing locally to fresh offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador early Sat through Sat evening. Southerly swell with moderate seas will propagate across the Ecuador, The Galapagos, and Colombia offshore waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well north of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with mainly moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are south of the monsoon trough in SW swell, highest near and just north of the Equator. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region north of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. Seas around 8 ft from the Equator to 10N will subside by late tonight. A new set of SW swell may breach 03.4S and west of 100W Mon night. Otherwise, mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will prevail into early next week. $$ Lewitsky