000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240734 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 87W, N of 04N into the far western Caribbean, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 85W and 93W. A tropical wave has its axis near 110W from 04N to 16N, drifting W very slowly. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 107W and 115W. A tropical wave is along 119W, extending from about 06N to 20N, drifting W at around 5 kt. Low pressure of 1009 mb is associated with the wave and centered near 19N119W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 20N between 115W and 122W. This convection and low pressure continue to become less organized, and environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for development. The systems chances of tropical cyclone formation continue to decrease, although there is still a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours. The system is forecast to continue moving slowly W, well offshore the Mexican coast. For more information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N115W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 94W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 13N to 16N between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extending to just west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters is supporting mainly gentle NW winds N of Punta Eugenia along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in northerly swell. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell, except along the Gulf of California where seas are to 3 ft, but southeast winds have increased to gentle to locally moderate. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail across the region and support mainly gentle NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu night, before high pressure building SW toward the area leads to winds increasing to moderate to fresh Fri and Fri night. Light to gentle variable winds elsewhere, except for the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh SE winds will develop today and again on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are N of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate southerly wind prevails with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters into the weekend, although periods of moderate S winds will impact areas offshore Colombia and Ecuador. Southerly swell with moderate seas will propagate across the Ecuador, The Galapagos and Colombia offshore waters Wed through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical Waves section above for details on low pressure associated with a tropical wave just W of Clarion Island. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 115W. Moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W while gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are S of the monsoon trough in SW swell. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 115W through late week. Southerly winds S of the monsoon trough, and E of 115W may increase to fresh today, and this combined with southerly swell may lead to a period of seas in the region of 7 to 9 ft. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ KONARIK