024 AXPZ20 KNHC 240158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W and N of 04N into the western Caribbean, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is across the northern Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters. A tropical wave has its axis near 110W from 04N to 16N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 107W and 115W. A tropical wave is along 118W, extending from about 06N to 20N, moving W at around 5 kt. Low pressure of 1009 mb is associated with the wave and centered near 19N118W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 20N between 113W and 120W. This low pressure has weakened since yesterday, but some development could still occur during the next day or two. The chances of tropical cyclone formation are decreasing since environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable later in the week. The system is expected to move slowly westward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. For more information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N117W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 94W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending to just west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in northerly swell. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell, except along the Gulf of California where seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail across the region and support gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro into the start of next week and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere, except for the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh SE winds will develop Wed and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are N of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate southerly wind prevails with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters through the end of the week, although periods of moderate S winds will impact areas south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell with moderate seas will propagate across the Ecuador, The Galapagos and Colombia offshore waters Wed into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical Waves section above for details on low pressure associated with a tropical wave several hundred miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 115W. Mainly moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W while gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are S of the monsoon trough in SW swell. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 115W through late week. Southerly winds S of the monsoon trough, and E of 115W will likely increase to fresh tonight into Wed, and this combined with southerly swell may lead to a period of seas in the region of 7 to 9 ft. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ KONARIK