000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 84W and N of 04N into the Caribbean, and is drifting W at around 5 kt. Scattered showers are across the northern Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters. A tropical wave has its axis near 109W from 04N to 16N, drifting west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 105W and 114W. A tropical wave is along 116W, extending from about 06N to 20N, drifting W at around 5 kt. Low pressure of 1009 mb is associated with the wave and centered near 18.6N116.7W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 20N between 113W and 120W. While a tropical depression could still form during the next day or so, the chances of formation are decreasing since environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable late in the week. The system is expected to move slowly westward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. For more information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N110W to 15N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N between 90W and 94W and from 10N to 18N between 120W and 134W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 90W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending to just west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia along with seas to 5 ft in northerly swell. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell, except along the Gulf of California where seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail across the region and support gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere but the Gulf of California where moderate to locally SE winds will develop Wed and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are N of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southerly wind prevails with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters through late week, although periods of moderate S winds will impact areas south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell and moderate seas may propagate across the outer offshore waters S of Nicaragua Wed night into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, which is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but still have potential of becoming a tropical depression within the next 2 days. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W while gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 115W through late week. Southerly winds S of the monsoon trough, and E of 115W may increase to fresh later today into Wed, and this combined with southerly swell may lead to a period of seas in the region of 7 to 9 ft. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ Ramos