000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 116W, extending from about 05N to 20N, drifting W at around 5 kt. Low pressure of 1011 mb is associated with the wave and centered near 18.5N116.0W. Numerous moderate convection is from 14N to 20N between 113W and 119W. Still, there is some potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days before environmental conditions become less favorable by the weekend. The system is expected to move generally westward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. For more information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 84W and N of 04N into the Caribbean, and is drifting W at around 5 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at the moment. A tropical wave has its axis near 109W from 04N to 19N, drifting west at around 5 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at the moment. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N114W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between 90W and 103W and from 07N to 14N between 115W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The low pressure moving through the Revillagigedo Islands with a potential for tropical development has now moved W of the area and will continue moving away this week. The showers and thunderstorms and fresh winds associated with it will diminish over the waters early this morning, with no further impacts anticipated. See Special Features Section above for details. Otherwise, high pressure NW of the area with a ridge extending to the Baja California Norte offshore waters are supporting gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro along with seas to 5 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell, except along the Gulf of California where seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through early in the weekend and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere but the Gulf of California where moderate to locally SE winds will develop Wed through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are N of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southerly wind prevails with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters through late week, although periods of moderate S winds will impact areas south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell and moderate seas may propagate across the outer offshore waters S of Nicaragua Wed night into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with potential of becoming a tropical depression within the next 2 days. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W while gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 115W through late week. Southerly winds S of the monsoon trough, and E of 115W may increase to fresh Tue into Wed, and this combined with southerly swell may lead to a period of seas in the region of 7 to 9 ft. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ Ramos