000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230251 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 116W, extending from about 05N to 20N, moving W at around 5 kt. Low pressure of 1011 mb is associated with the wave and centered near 19N116W. Numerous moderate isolated strong, disorganized, convection is from 17N to 21N between 113W and 118W. Fresh winds are occurring within about 60 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. This low does not currently have a well- defined center, but environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development over the next day or so. A tropical depression could still form before conditions become less favorable toward the latter half of the week, as the system moves W or WNW, well offshore the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. For more in information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 108W from 04N to 15N, drifting west at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 105W and 114W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 83W and is now extending southward into portions of the eastern Pacific, offshore Panama. This wave is drifting very slowly W. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough Section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N115W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N E of 103W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 07N to 10N between 114W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The low pressure moving through the Revillagigedo Islands with a potential for tropical development has now moved W of the area and will continue moving away this week. The showers and thunderstorms and fresh winds associated with it will diminish over the waters this evening, with no further impacts anticipated. See Special Features Section above for details. Otherwise, high pressure NW of the area with a ridge extending to the Baja California Norte offshore waters are supporting moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro along with seas to 5 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell, except along the Gulf of California where seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through early in the weekend and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere but the Gulf of California where moderate to locally SE winds will develop Wed through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are N of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southerly wind prevails with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters into late week, although periods of moderate S winds will impact areas south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell and moderate seas are likely to propagate across the outer offshore waters S of Nicaragua Wed and Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with potential of becoming a tropical depression within the next 2 days. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W while gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 115W through late week. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ KONARIK