783 AXPZ20 KNHC 222155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 115W, extending from about 05N to 20N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure of 1012 mb is associated with the wave and centered near 18N115W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 17N to 21N between 113W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 113W and 118W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or so as the system moves W or WNW, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. By midweek, less favorable environmental conditions could limit further development. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. For more in information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 107W from 04N to 15N, moving west at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 105W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 16N between 94W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N110W to 16N130W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N E of 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on low pressure located several hundred miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula that may develop into a tropical depression. Otherwise, high pressure anchored by a 1025 mb high NW of the area and extending a ridge to the Baja California Norte offshore waters is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro along with seas to 5 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell, except along the Gulf of California where seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, aside from the low pressure with potential of becoming a tropical depression, no major changes are expected elsewhere through Fri evening, except for moderate to locally fresh SE winds that will develop along the Gulf of California Wed, which will prevail through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are N of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southerly wind prevails with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean along with the monsoo For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters into late week. Southerly swell and seas of 6-7 ft are likely to propagate across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with potential of becoming a tropical depression within the next 2 days. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W while gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 115W into late week. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ Ramos