000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 114W, extending from about 08N to near 20N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure of 1011 mb associated with it is centered near 18N114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 21N between 111W and 117W. Even though showers and thunderstorms have decreased slightly, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system moves W or WNW, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. By midweek, less favorable environmental conditions could limit further development. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. For more in information see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 105W from 05N to 18N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 98W and 106W. Numeros moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave from 06N to 11N between 106W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N110W to 15N120W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N E of 84W, from 07N to 15N between 85W and 94W, from 12N to 19N between 123W and 134W, and from 08N to 12N W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on low pressure near Clarion Island that may develop into a tropical depression. Otherwise, light to gentle winds generally prevail across the waters. High pressure nosing southward from offshore the western United States is leading to gentle to moderate NW to the west of Baja California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the low pressure near Clarion Island, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters into Tue, although locally fresh winds are possible near the west coast of Baja California today and tonight. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, except for moderate offshore winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to locally moderate S winds are observed S of 08N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Significant convection along the monsoon trough, described above, is likely leading to locally higher winds and seas in its vicinity, offshore Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters into late week. Southerly swell and seas of 6-7 ft are likely to propagate across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for low pressure that will move WNW away from the Revillagigedo Islands and into the area over the next couple of days that has potential for tropical formation. Weakening 1010 mb low pressure is near 17N129W. Convection to the south of this low is primarily associated with the monsoon trough, described above. There is still some moderate winds in the northern semicircle, but the low pressure is likely to open into a trough by Tue as the overall weakening trend continues. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area continues to dominate the weather pattern for waters N of 20N and west of 110W, including the offshore waters of Baja California. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W while gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 110W into late week. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ Ramos