000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 114W and extends from 08N to near Clarion Island, moving WNW at 5 to 10 kt. A low pressure along it, centered near 18N114W, has strengthened a bit this evening, and numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 14N to 20N between 111W and 115W is showing some signs of organization. Moderate winds are likely ongoing within about 120 nm of the center of this low, with seas remaining below 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system moves WNW or NW, well offshore and SW of the southern tip of Baja California. By midweek, less favorable environmental conditions should limit further development. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 103W from 05N to 14N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 09N to 12N between 100W and 105W. See Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave along 114W and its associated low pressure center. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N112W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 88W, including the Gulf of Panama, and from 10N to 14N between 120W and 128W. Similar convection is also seen from 14N to 17N between 118W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on low pressure near the Revillagigedo Islands that may develop into a tropical depression. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the low pressure near Clarion Island, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters into Tue, although locally fresh winds are possible near the west coast of Baja California Mon and Mon night. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Light to gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, except for moderate offshore winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to locally moderate S winds are observed S of 08N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Significant convection along the monsoon trough, described above, is likely leading to locally higher winds and seas in its vicinity. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters during the next several days, although moderate gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua tonight. Southerly swell and seas of 6-7 ft are forecast to propagate across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for low pressure that will move WNW to NW away from the Revillagigedo Islands into and into the area over the next couple of days that has potential for tropical formation. The remnant low of Ivette is located near 17N127 with a central pressure of 1009 mb. Convection has dissipated with this low, and associated winds within 120 nm in the northern semicircle have decreased to mainly moderate. Seas are now 6 ft or less. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for further development as this system moves over cooler waters and into a more stable atmospheric environment, thus redevelopment is not anticipated. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1022 mb located near 33N133W is in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the 20N and west of 110W, including the offshore waters of Baja California. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W while moderate SE to S winds and seas of 6-8 ft are S of the monsoon trough. A surge of fresh SW winds and seas of up to 10 ft is noted along and just south of the monsoon trough from about 07N to 10N between 120W and 130W, in the vicinity of some significant convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 110W through mid-week. S of 20N W of 110W, the forecast will depend on the evolution of the aforementioned tropical systems. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ KONARIK