000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 102W from 05N to 14N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 10N to 12N between 100W and 103W. A tropical wave is along 112W/113W and extends from 08N to 20N. The wave axis currently crosses between the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak low pressure has developed along the wave axis near 17.5N112.5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 111W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen elsewhere from 14N to 17N between 111W and 114W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. By midweek, cooler waters and dry air should end the chance for any further development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 14N122W to 10N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 88W, including the Gulf of Panama, and from 10N to 14N between 120W and 128W. Similar convection is also seen from 14N to 17N between 118W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly light NW to N winds. An area of gentle to moderate E to SE winds is between the coast of Mexico and the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly from 15N to 20N between 105W and 110W. Elsewhere gentle winds prevail, including the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters into Tue, although locally fresh winds are possible near the west coast of Baja California Mon and Mon night. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Light to gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds in the northern part of the Gulf Tue night through Wed night as a low pressure briefly develops over northern Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed per scatterometer data south of 08N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Higher winds are noted near the convective activity previously described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters during the next several days. Southerly swell and seas of 6-7 ft are forecast to propagate across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Wed and Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Ivette is located near 17N126.5W, with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are still noted within 90 nm NW quadrant of low center. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased today in associated with this system. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development within the next day or so. Therefore, the overall chance of further development of this system is decreasing. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb located near 33N133W is in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the 20N and west of 110W, including the offshore waters of Baja California. S of 20N and W of 110W, the remnant low of Ivette and a developing low pressure system are noted. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 6-8 ft are S of the monsoon trough. A surge of fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of up to 10 ft, based on altimeter data, has developed along and just south of the monsoon trough from about 07N to 10N between 120W and 130W, in the vicinity of some significant convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast region N of 20N W of 110W through mid-week. S of 20N W of 110W, the forecast will depend on the evolution of the aforementioned tropical systems. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ GR