000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211513
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 101W from 05N to 14N, moving 
west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the northern end of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave has its axis near 113W from 03N to the Revillagigedo
Islands, drifting W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 111W and 113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 13N120W to 
10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
N of 06N E of 81W, including the Gulf of Panama, from 04N to 08N
between 81W and 87W, and from 09N to 13N between 120W and 128W. 
Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are also seen 
near 08N89W, 15N94W, and 09N113W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters 
of Baja California producing mainly light NW to N winds. Gentle
to locally moderate winds dominate elsewhere, including the Gulf
of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf
of California. 

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican
offshore waters into Tue, although locally fresh winds are 
possible near the west coast of Baja California Mon and Mon 
night. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW 
swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Mainly gentle to 
locally moderate SE to S winds across the Gulf of California
today will diminish starting tonight, with seas generally 3 ft 
or less.

A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of 
this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves 
northwestward then westward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
By midweek, cooler waters and dry air should end the chance for any 
further development.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, except for locally
moderate offshore winds off the coast of Nicaragua. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of 08N. Seas are 4 to 6
ft. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across 
the offshore forecast waters during the next several days, with 
moderate gap winds pulsing today in the Papagayo Region. 
Southerly swell and seas of 6-7 ft are forecast to propagate 
across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Tue 
into Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Ivette is located near 17N125.5W, with a 
central pressure of 1008 mb. This system continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of 
this system is possible over the next day or so as it moves 
generally westward, well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. 
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable for further development. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft
are noted within 90 nm NW quadrant of low center. There is a 
low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1020 mb located near 31N138W remains
in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the
monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W 
while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 6-8 ft 
are S of the monsoon trough. A surge of fresh to locally strong 
SW winds and seas of up to 9 ft has developed along and just 
south of the monsoon trough from about 07N to 10N between 120W 
and 130W, in the vicinity of some significant convection described
in the Monsoon Trough Section above. 

For the forecast, aside potentially locally higher winds and seas
associated with the remnants of Ivette, and the aforementioned
area of increasing winds and seas S of the monsoon trough, no 
major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere.

$$
GR