000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210746
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 100W from 03N to just S of
Oaxaca, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 93W and 100W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 113W from 03N to the
Revillagigedo Islands, drifting W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 
107W and 118W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N110W to 10N140W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
07N to 16N between 119W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted N of 04N E of 81W and N of 07N between 84W and 92W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters 
of Baja California producing mainly light NW to N winds. Gentle
to locally moderate winds dominate elsewhere, including the Gulf
of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf
of California. 

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican
offshore waters into Tue, although locally fresh winds are 
possible near the west coast of Baja California Mon and Mon 
night. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW 
swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Mainly gentle to 
locally moderate SE to S winds across the Gulf of California
today will diminish starting tonight, with seas generally 3 ft 
or less.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, except for locally
moderate offshore winds off the coast of Nicaragua. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of 08N. Seas are 4 to 6
ft. A cluster of thunderstorms that has moved offshore El
Salvador and Guatemala overnight is likely producing some locally
higher winds and seas within about 90 nm of shore. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the 
offshore forecast waters during the next several days, with 
moderate gap winds pulsing today in the Papagayo Region. 
Southerly swell and seas of 6-7 ft are forecast to propagate 
across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Tue 
into Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Ivette is located near 17N125W, with a 
central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered disorganized moderate 
convection, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of up to 7 ft are
noted within about 120 nm of center in the north semicircle. 
Some slow redevelopment of this low is possible over the next 
couple of days as the system moves W, but by Tue, environmental 
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further 
development. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the 
next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N140W remains
in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the
monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W 
while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 6-8 ft 
are S of the monsoon trough. A surge of fresh to locally strong
SW winds and seas of up to 9 ft have formed along and just south
of the monsoon trough from about 06N to 10N between 120W and
125W, in the vicinity of some significant convection described in
the Monsoon Trough Section above. 

For the forecast, aside potentially locally higher winds and seas
associated with the remnants of Ivette, described above, and 
increase in winds and seas is expected S of the monsoon trough 
and mainly between 120W and 130W into tonight associated with a 
weak low pressure likely to form along the monsoon trough, no 
major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK