000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 99W north of 03N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 07N to 12N between 93W and 98W. A tropical wave has its axis near 112W north of 03N, moving west at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 107W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N102W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 124W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of 81W, 06N to 10N between 84W and 90W, and 05N to 08N between 100W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing light to gentle gentle NW to N winds. Gentle to locally moderate mainly SE winds are in the Gulf of California, with similar wind speeds across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican offshore waters into Tue night, although locally fresh winds are possible near the west coast of Baja California Mon and Mon night. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Mainly gentle to locally moderate SE to S winds will prevail across the Gulf of California with seas generally 3 ft or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, except for locally moderate offshore winds off the coast of Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of 08N. There are 6 to 7 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, otherwise seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters during the next several days, with moderate gap winds pulsing at times in the Papagayo Region. The southerly swell affecting the forecast region will subside tonight, but addition swell and seas of 6-7 ft are forecast to propagate across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua southward Tue into Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Ivette is located near 16N123W, with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered disorganized moderate convection is noted within 90 nm NE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of up to 7 ft are occurring in the north semicircle. Some slow redevelopment of this low is possible over the next few days as the system moves W. By Mon night, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N140W remains in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 6-8 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, aside potentially locally higher winds and seas associated with the remnants of Ivette, described above, an increase in winds and seas is expected S of the monsoon trough and mainly between 120W and 130W tonight into Sun night associated with a weak low pressure likely to form along the monsoon trough. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ KONARIK