000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 98W north of 03N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis near 111W north of 03N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the wave axis from 13N to 16N between 106W and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 102W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 11N110W to 12N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 04N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection can also be found from 06N to 10N between 84W and 90W, from 05N to 08N between 100W and 103W, from 07N to 13N between 120W and 128W, and from 07N to 10N between 131W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle NW to N winds. Gentle to locally moderate mainly SE winds are in the Gulf of California, with similar wind speeds across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican offshore waters through Tue night. Seas are likely to briefly increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Mainly gentle to locally moderate SE to S winds will prevail across the Gulf of California with seas generally 3 ft or less, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the offshore waters of El Salvador with gentle to moderate NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of 08N. Moderate southerly winds prevail south of 08N. There are 6 to 7 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands based on a couple of altimeter passes. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected across the offshore forecast waters during the next several days. The southerly swell affecting the forecast region will continue to subside tonight into Sun. Seas of 6-7 ft in S to SW swell are forecast to propagate across the outer offshore waters between western Panama and Nicaragua Tue night into Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Ivette is still noted on visible satellite imagery near 16N123W. It has a central pressure of 1008 mb. A cluster of moderate convection is noted within about 75 nm NE quadrant of low center. Mainly fresh northerly winds and seas of 7 ft are noted on the NW quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N140W remains in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Based on scatterometer and altimeter data, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 6-8 ft are S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, an increase in winds and seas is expected S of the monsoon trough and mainly between 120W and 130W tonight through Sun likely associated with a weak low pressure along the monsoon trough. In fact, visible satellite picture shows a swirl of low clouds spinning near 12N122W. No major changes in the marine conditions are expected elsewhere. $$ GR