000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201534
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 98W north of 03N, moving west 
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 
06N to 09N between 93W and 100W. 

A tropical wave has its axis near 110W north of 03N, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 10N to 16N between 108W and 115W. similar convection is also
noted 15n to 18N between 102W and 110W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 13N118W to 
11N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is N of 04N 
E of 81W to the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted from
06N to 13N between 82W and 93W, from 08N to 13N between 118W and
130W, and from 07N to 09N between 131W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. 
Gentle to locally moderate mainly SE winds are in the Gulf of 
California, with similar winds across the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican
offshore waters through Tue night. Seas are likely to briefly 
increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night
into Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 ft are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 06N. 
Moderate southerly winds prevail south of 06N. There are 7 to 8 
ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the 
coast of Nicaragua will diminish tonight. The southerly swell 
affecting the forecast region will continue to subside into Sat,
with mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas across 
the area through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Ivette is still noted on visible satellite 
imagery near 16N122W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. A 
cluster of moderate convection is noted within about 150 nm NW 
quadrant of low center. Fresh winds and seas of 7 ft are also
observed on the NW quadrant of the low. 

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N138W 
dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 
120W. Gentle to moderate moderate NE winds are north of the 
monsoon trough and west of 120W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas in 
the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, computer models suggest an increase in winds
and seas S of the monsoon trough and mainly between 120W and 130W
tonight through Sun. No major changes in the marine conditions 
are expected elsewhere.

$$
GR