877 
AXPZ20 KNHC 200744
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 98W north of 03N, moving west 
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 
07N to 11N between 93W and 98W. 


A tropical wave has its axis near 111W north of 03N, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 16N between 103W and 113W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 15N115W to 11N135W. An
ITCZ has formed from 11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 114W
and 124W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. 
Gentle to locally moderate mainly SE winds are in the Gulf of 
California, with similar winds across the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican
offshore waters through Tue night. Seas are likely to briefly 
increase to 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night
into Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 ft are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 06N. 
Moderate southerly winds prevail south of 06N. There are 7 to 8 
ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Scattered 
moderate convection has also formed off the coast of Colombia, E 
of 79W. 

For the forecast, fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the 
coast of Nicaragua will diminish tonight. The southerly swell 
affecting the forecast region will continue to subside into Sat,
with mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas across 
the area through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 17N120W. A cluster of 
moderate convection is noted to the W of the low center covering
the waters from 17N to 19N between 121W and 123W. Some locally
higher winds and seas are possible with this convection.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1022 mb located near 31N138W 
dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 
120W. Gentle to moderate moderate NE winds are north of the 
monsoon trough and west of 120W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas in 
the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, computer models suggest an increase in winds
and seas S of the monsoon trough and mainly between 120W and 125W
by Sat night through Sun. No major changes in the marine 
conditions are expected elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK