297 
AXPZ20 KNHC 192108
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 95W north of 03N, moving west 
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave
axis over the eastern Pacific waters.

A tropical wave has its axis near 108W north of 03N, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 15N between 103W and 112W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N100W to 1010 mb low
pressure located near 17N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 114W
and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 12N 
W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Light to 
gentle winds are in the Gulf of California, and also elsewhere 
across the open waters off Mexico based on recent scatterometer
data. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican 
offshore waters through Tue. Seas will briefly increase to 5 to 
7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Mainly
gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail across the Gulf of
California with seas of 1 to 3 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8 ft are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 06N. 
Moderate southerly winds prevail south of 06N. A recent altimeter
pass provided observations of 8 to 9 ft seas between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish by early this evening. The
southerly swell affecting the forecast region will continue to subside
into Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas across
the area into early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent visible satellite picture indicates that the remnant low 
of Ivette is centered near 17N120W. Minimum central pressure is 
1010 mb. A well defined swirl of low clouds is associated with
this low, with a cluster of moderate convection to the W of the 
low center covering the waters from 17N to 19N between 121W and 
123W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are still noted on the 
NW quadrant of the remnant low.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1024 mb located near 31N138W dominates
the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Mainly 
moderate NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough and west 
of 120W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are S of 
the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, computer models suggest an increase in winds
and seas S of the monsoon trough and mainly between 120W and 125W
by Sat night into Sun. No major changes in the marine conditions
are expected elsewhere.

$$
GR