000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 93W north of 03N, moving west 
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the 
wave axis over the eastern Pacific waters.

A tropical wave has its axis near 107W north of 03N, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 16N between 102W and 110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N100W to 1010 mb low
pressure located near 17N119W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 110W and 120W,
and from 09N to 12N W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail off Baja California 
Norte. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the open waters
off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the 
northern Gulf of California while mainly gentle winds and seas of
2 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, low pressure over the Colorado River valley 
will support moderate to fresh winds across the northern Gulf of 
California through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient 
will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across Mexican offshore waters through Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8 ft are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 04N. 
Moderate winds prevail south of 04N. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range
north of 08N, and 8 ft in southerly swell south of 08N. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish later today. The southerly
swell affecting the forecast region will continue to subside into
Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas across
the area into early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent visible satellite picture indicates that the remnant low 
of Ivette is centered near 17N120W. Minimum central pressure is 
1010 mb. A well defined swirl of low clouds is associated with
this low, with a cluster of moderate convection to the W of the 
low center covering the waters from 17N to 19N between 121W and 
123W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are still noted on the 
NW quadrant of the low.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb located near 31N139W dominates
the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Mainly 
moderate NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough and west 
of 120W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Moderate S winds are S of the 
monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, computer models suggest an increase in winds
and seas S of the monsoon trough and mainly between 120W and 125W
by Sat night. No major changes in the marine conditions are 
expected elsewhere.

$$
GR