000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181445
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 87W north of 03N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave has its axis near 103W north of 03N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N103W to 17N117W to 
12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 07N east of 82W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 106W, from
07N to 14N between 110W and 122W, and from 5N to 10N between 130W
and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail off Baja California
Norte as well as in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 
in the 4-6 ft range, except for 6-7 ft seas off Oaxaca and 
Chiapas in southerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and 
seas of 3-4 ft are in the northern Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds and seas of 2-3 ft prevail over the remainder of the
Gulf waters.

For the forecast, low pressure over the Colorado River valley will
support moderate to fresh winds across the northern Gulf of
California through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern
will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas across Mexican offshore waters through Mon.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, with light
to gentle winds elsewhere north of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail south of 04N. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range north of 08N,
and 8-9 ft in southerly swell south of 08N. 

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua Thu into Fri. The swell will 
subside Fri into Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas across the region into early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Ivette is centered near 17N118W. A few 
showers and thunderstorms are active within 90 to 120 nm west of 
the center, but overall the low is weakening. Seas are estimated 
to still be near 6 ft. Winds and seas will continue to decrease 
through Thu.

Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of 
the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE to E 
winds are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, where 
seas are 4-7 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon 
trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected elsewhere 
through the middle of next week.

$$
AL