810 AXPZ20 KNHC 180248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 86W/87W north of 03N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis near 102W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are evident from 11N to 13N between 98W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 18N117W to 11N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 105W and 110W, and from 10N to 13N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered near 35N135W to Baja California Sur. This pattern is maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 6-7 ft seas off Oaxaca and Chiapas due to southerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 3-4 ft are in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-3 ft prevail over the remainder of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across Mexican offshore waters through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent altimeter pass indicated 7 to 9 ft seas south of western Panama, in between the Galapagos and the mainland. This confirms a large area of southerly swell that has been crossing the equator over the past couple of days, delivering seas to 6 or 7 ft off the coasts of western Panama and Costa Rica, mainly between the Azuero Peninsula and the Nicoya Peninsula. Beachgoers in these areas should be aware of the potential for hazardous surf conditions. Moderate S to SW winds are noted south 05N. Light to gentle breezes and moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident north of 05N. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua Thu into Fri. The larger swell south of 05N will subside Fri into Sat, leaving mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas across the region into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Ivette is centered near 18N117W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to locally fresh winds persist around the remnant low of Ivette. Seas are estimated to still be near 6 ft. Winds and seas will continue to decrease through Thu. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, no major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ Christensen