000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette is centered near 17.3N 115.1W at 16/2100 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 115W and 118W. Seas are peaking near 8 ft. Ivette is forecast to slowly drift westward and become a remnant low late tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 83W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis over Pacific waters. A tropical wave has its axis near 96W north of 02N, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N100W to 13N107W. It resumes from 14N119W to 12N125W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 86W and 100W, from 05N to 10N between 100W and 108W, and from 09N to 12N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post Tropical Cyclone Ivette. Outside of Post Tropical Cyclone Ivette, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 5 to 7 ft north of Punta Eugenia in NW swell. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters in mostly SW swell south of 20N, and NW to N swell north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are over the northern Gulf of California, with light to gentle winds and slight seas in the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of Post Tropical Cyclone Ivette, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle breezes persist north of 05N, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in SW swell are noted south of 05N. For the forecast, moderate SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. SW swell in this region will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters south of 05N through the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail across the northern Central America offshore waters through mid- week. Looking ahead, fresh winds may pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua by late Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Post Tropical Cyclone Ivette. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, aside from Post Tropical Cyclone Ivette, no major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ AL