666 AXPZ20 KNHC 152052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 17.7N 113.9W at 15/2100 UTC moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm W semicircle. Seas are peaking near 10 ft. Ivette Is forecast to slowly drift westward and weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and a remnant low on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 92W north of 05N, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N95W to 12N103W. It continues from 15N117W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N east of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 90W and 95W, and from 10N to 13N between 125W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Ivette. Outside of T.S. Ivette, Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 6 to 7 ft north of Punta Eugenia in NW swell. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters in mostly SW swell south of 20N, and NW to N swell north of 20N. Light winds and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Outside of T.S. Ivette, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle breezes persist north of 05N, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in SW swell are noted south of 05N. For the forecast, moderate SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. SW swell in this region will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters south of 05N through the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail across the northern Central America offshore waters through mid- week. Looking ahead, fresh winds may pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua by late Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Ivette. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, aside from T.S. Ivette, no major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ AL