000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... T.D. Ten-E is centered near 18.0N 111.5W at 13/2100 UTC, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest, and a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday before weakening into a remnant low early next week. At this time, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 112W and 116W. Seas are ranging between 8-9 ft in the northern semicircle of the system. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 04N to 18N and 103W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this wave are from 06N to 19N between 98W and 109W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 07N to 20N and 114W, moving west at around 10 kt. This wave is to the west of the now T.D. Ten-E. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 112W and 116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N102W, then resumes near 14N115W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N and E of 89W, from 06N to 13N between 99W and 107W, and from 06N to 13N between 129W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Ten-E. Moderate NW winds are across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds are in Jalisco and Colima offshore waters associated with the low in the Special Features section. Seas are currently in the 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft range in SW swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, showers and tstms will continue across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the weekend as TD Ten-E approaches. T.D. Ten-E will move to 18.3N 112.7W Sun morning, 18.6N 113.9W Sun afternoon, 18.5N 114.5W Mon morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.2N 114.9W Mon afternoon, 17.9N 115.3W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. SW swell will increase the seas in this region on Sun night and will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the week. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Central America offshore waters through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details the now T.D. Ten-E. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of 20N and W of 130W, and between the monsoon trough and 20N W of 120W where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, aside from T.D. Ten-E, no major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ ERA