000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Latest satellite-derived winds showed a small surface circulation has formed in association with the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, near 18N110W. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has also increased within the past few hours. If this activity were to continue, a short-lived tropical depression could form later today or this evening while the system moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By Sunday, upper- level winds are forecast to strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 04N to 18N and 102W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this wave are from 14N to 19N between 101W and 104W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 07N to 20N and 114W, moving west at around 10 kt. A 1008 mb low has detached from the wave and is located just east of it near 18N110W, which is described in more detail in the Special Features section above. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 15N to 20N between 110W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N100W to 18N110W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of 88W, and from 06N to 22N between 99W and 115W. Scattered showers prevail along the boundary mainly W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Moderate NW winds are across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds are in Jalisco and Colima offshore waters associated with the low in the Special Features section. Seas are currently in the 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft range in SW swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development of the area of low pressure in the Special Features, showers and tstms will continue across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the weekend. The low is forecast to reach the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N by Sat morning with winds reaching near-gale force speeds. Seas are estimated to build to 9 ft during that period. Winds and seas associated with the low are forecast to diminish by Sun afternoon as the low moves near 19N114W. Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue in the Baja California peninsula offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon night, then diminish to light to gentle winds for the remainder forecast period. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase the seas in this region on Sun night and will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the week. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Central America offshore waters through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a low pressure system located a few hundred miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a tropical depression today. Regardless of development, strong to near-gale force winds are possible just SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters through the weekend. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate NE to E winds are N of 20N and W of 130W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon trough and 20N W of 130W where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ ERA