000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130838 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, has slightly decreased in coverage and organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions remain somewhat conducive for the development of a short-lived tropical depression today while the system moves WNW to NW at 9 to 13 kt. By Sunday, upper- level winds are forecast to strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N with axis near 101W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this wave are across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, and from 06N to 12N between 97W and 102W. A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 111W, moving west at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low has detached from the wave and is located just east of it near 17N109W, which is described in more detail in the Special Features section above. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 16N to 19N between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 107W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 16N109W to 11N117W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 94W, and from 08N to 14N between 113W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Moderate NW winds are across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds are in Jalisco and Colima offshore waters associated with the low in the Special Features section. Seas are currently in the 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft range in SW swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development of the area of low pressure in the Special Features, showers and tstms will continue across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the weekend. The low is forecast to reach the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N by Sat morning with winds reaching near gale force speeds. Seas are estimated to build to 8 ft during that period. Winds and seas associated with the low are forecast to diminish by late Sun afternoon as the low moves near 19N113W. Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue in the Baja California offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon night, then diminish to light to gentle winds for the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase the seas in this region Sun night and will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the week. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Central America offshore waters through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a tropical depression tonight or Sat. Regardless of development, strong to near gale force winds are possible just SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters Sat and Sun. The persistent remnant low of Howard is centered near 23N128W at 1014 mb. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft in the NW quadrant of the low. Associated winds are around 15-20 kt. This low is expected to dissipate by Sat morning. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate NE to E winds are N of 20N and W of 131W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon trough and 20N W of 130W where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon between 110W and 125W. Moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ Ramos