000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, have changed little in organization since yesterday. A small increase in the organization of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression, likely tonight or on Saturday, while the system moves WNW to NW at about 9 kt. By Sunday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N with axis near 100W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this wave are across the S and SW offshore waters, and from 05N to 09N between 96W and 106W. A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 111W, moving west at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low has detached from the wave and is located just east of it near 16N108W, which is described in more detail in the Special Features section above. Numerous moderate convection is from 15N to 20N between 108W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 13N between 107W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 16N109W to 11N117W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 94W, and from 08N to 14N between 113W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Moderate NW winds are across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds are in Jalisco and Colima offshore waters associated with the low in the Special Features section. Seas are currently in the 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft range in SW swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development of the area of low pressure in the Special Features, showers and tstms will continue across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the weekend. The low is forecast to reach the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N by Sat morning with winds reaching near gale force speeds. Seas are estimated to build to 8 ft during that period. Winds and seas associated with the low are forecast to diminish by late Sun afternoon as the low moves near 19N113W. Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue in the Baja California offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon night, then diminish to light to gentle winds for the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are in the Papagayo region while gentle to moderate S to SW winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft across both the Central America and Ecuador offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate easterly winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to light to gentle speeds early on Sat and continue through the remainder forecast period. Moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase the seas in this region Sun night and will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a tropical depression today or Sat. Regardless of development, strong to near-gale winds are expected SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters Sat and Sun. The persistent remnant low of Howard is centered near 24N128W at 1016 mb. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft and associated winds are around 15-20 kt. This low is expected to dissipate by Sat morning. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 118W. Moderate NE to E winds are N of 20N and W of 130W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon and 20N where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon between 110W and 130W. Moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no major changes are expected elsewhere through early next week. $$ Ramos