000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120341 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale Warning: Recent satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with a low pressure system located about 400 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and only a small increase in the organization of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical depression, likely tonight or on Friday. The low is forecast to move WNW at about 10 mph well offshore the coast of Mexico, and further development appears unlikely by Sunday when the system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions. Regardless of development, gale force winds are forecast Saturday and Sun for the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 95W north of 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the following section. A tropical wave has its axis near 107W from 04N to 20N, moving west at around 10 kt. There is a low associated with this wave, which is described in more detail in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 12N99W to 12N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 78W and 90W, from 06N to 16N between 94W and 110W, and from 08N to 11N between 110W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure, which has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation, located several hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are Offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low pressure, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region through Thu night, and increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Ecuador Sun into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad area of low pressure several hundred nautical miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The remnant low of Howard is located near 24N125W at 1012 mb. Peak seas are currently near 9 ft and associated winds are around 20 kt. No deep convection is present. The remnants are forecast to dissipate by Sat morning. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh west of 100W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas in the 4-7 ft range. $$ Ramos