000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111436 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 92W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 105W/106W north of 02N, moving west at around 10 kt. This feature is described in more detail in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12.5N101W to 11N111W to 13N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 88W, from 07N to 16N between 90W and 107W, from 08N to 11N between 112W and 121W, and from 10N to 12N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are Offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low pressure, winds over the Tehuantepec area will diminish today. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region through Thu night, and increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Ecuador Sun into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad area of low pressure several hundred nautical miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Post-Tropical/Remnant Low of Howard is located near 24N124W at 1011 mb. Peak seas are currently near 10 ft and associated winds are 20 to 25 kt. No deep convection is present. Winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less early Fri. The remnants are forecast to dissipate by Sat morning. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh west of 100W. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 23N and west of 129W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except locally 8 ft along and just north of 03.4S west of 95W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail. $$ AL