000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110804 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad 1010 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico near 12.5N103.5W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, although a little more rotation has become evident in the cloud pattern since earlier today. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nautical miles in the northeast quadrant. Currently, associated winds are 20 kt with seas less than 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 kt, well offshore the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis just northeast of the Galapagos Islands near 89W north of 03N to across El Salvador, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 104W north of 02N to southwestern Mexico just southeast of Cabo Corrientes, moving west at around 10 kt. This feature is described in more detail in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N89W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12.5N103.5W to 11N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 83W and 95W, from 08N to 12N between 100W and 119W, and from 09N to 13N between 127W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted offshore Colombia to 80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are Offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft in the area including offshore of all of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low pressure, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early today. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region through Thu night, and increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Ecuador Sun into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad area of low pressure several hundred nautical miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Post-Tropical/Remnant Low of Howard is located near 24N123W at 1008 mb. Peak seas are currently near 11 ft and associated winds are 20 to 30 kt. No deep convection is present. Winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less early Fri. The remnants are forecast to dissipate by Sat morning. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate trades elsewehre north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh west of 100W. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 23N and west of 129W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except locally 8 ft along and just north of 03.4S west of 95W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail. $$ Lewitsky